In the autumn of 2012, the Canton Fair closed on November 4th in Guangzhou. Under the multiple backgrounds of the weak global economic recovery, the "European debt crisis", the dispute over the Sino-Japanese Diaoyu territorial disputes, and China's own economic restructuring, the total number of buyers participating in the Canton Fair has decreased by 10.3% compared with the previous session; the export turnover was US$32.68 billion. The decrease was 9.3% year-on-year, of which the turnover to the European market decreased by 10.5%, the export turnover to the United States decreased by 9.4%, and the export turnover to Japan decreased by 36.6%. From the point of view of individual goods, the turnover of non-necessities necessitated a significant drop, and the overall value of electromechanical goods, clothing, plush toys decreased by approximately 20%; transactions in necessities of life showed a slight increase. The specific analysis of the country source direction and product type of the transaction orders mainly presents three characteristics. First, the ordering business in the traditional developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan is sluggish, but emerging markets such as South America, the Middle East, and Africa are booming and perform well. Second, the traditional orders for labor-intensive processed products have fallen sharply, but sales of innovative and branded products have risen against the trend. Third, the traditional product export orders have been significantly reduced, but the technology, assembly lines, and even the entire production equipment export transaction has climbed. The Canton Fair has always been called the "barometer" and "weather vane" of China's foreign trade. From the current situation of the Canton Fair, the overall situation of China's foreign trade in 2013 is not optimistic, but it still has its development characteristics and highlights of growth.
First, the era of rapid export growth will be gone forever.
The global financial crisis and the "European debt crisis" dragged the world economy into a low-growth era. The import demand of the United States and the European Union is unsustainable. The territorial disputes between China and Japan on Diaoyu Island will affect bilateral trade; the major export partners in China have "returned to industrial In the context of constant frictions and disputes concerning trade with China, "Made in China" will inevitably encounter negative shocks and challenges from external demand. On the other hand, China's domestic economy is at a crossroads of transformation. The significant increase in labor costs and business operating costs has led to a gradual decline in the export competitiveness of traditional labor-intensive products, and processing trade and “made in China” that rely on low labor cost advantages. "We are faced with huge challenges. Some foreign-funded processing companies have withdrawn from China. The domestic and international backgrounds and developments have determined that the golden age of China’s high-speed growth in foreign trade will never return. Raising the quality and efficiency of trade and finding new growth points for foreign trade should become the direction of China’s future foreign trade development.
Second, the trend of stabilization and recovery has become increasingly clear.
Although the overall situation of China’s foreign trade in 2013 was not optimistic, the trend of stabilization and recovery was clear. The foreign trade data in September this year has initially shown this trend. The total value of import and export trade has increased by 6.3%, and exports have increased by 9.9%. The single-month export volume has reached a new high, and imports have increased by 2.4%.
There are three main factors supporting the growth of export trade next year. First, the European and American advanced economies are gradually recovering from the crisis. The growth prospects of the United States economy are improving, and the European debt crisis is also steadily defusing. The improvement of the economic situation of major trading partners will, to some extent, increase the demand for "Made in China." Second, China's cooperation with emerging economies has increased and mutual trade is steadily increasing. Third, the recently promulgated policy of stable export trade, including the simplification of export tax refund procedures and trade facilitation measures, is conducive to the development of China’s foreign trade, and the promotion effect of policies will gradually emerge. Fourth, political stability and loose monetary policy are conducive to the development of China's export trade. 2012 is a year of global elections. In 2013, when the new government took office, there will usually be more economic stimulus policies, and a more stable political environment is also conducive to the growth of global trade. At the same time, the recent quantitative easing by the United States and the effects of loose monetary policies in major advanced economies will gradually show up in 2013, which will also benefit China’s exports to a certain extent.
Third, emerging markets will become new highlights of exports.
The economic and trade cooperation and exchanges between China and emerging market countries have achieved rapid development in recent years. Bilateral and multilateral trade integration has accelerated, and mutual trade growth has been gratifying. Judging from the September trade data just announced, China’s exports to emerging economies such as Russia, Malaysia, and the Philippines have grown rapidly. At this time of the Canton Fair, the BRICS of Russia, Brazil and other countries have almost overshadowed the European and American markets. Emerging markets are increasingly becoming new highlights of China’s export trade growth. Promoting and expanding trade in emerging market countries is an important direction for future foreign trade.
Fourth, exports to advanced economies will gradually pick up.
The EU and the United States are China’s major trading partners. Judging from the current situation, China’s exports to the United States have gradually recovered with the recovery of the United States economy. However, due to the impact of the European debt crisis, the EU’s exports have fallen sharply and have fallen significantly. The current debt crisis in Europe is gradually being eased. As the European economy gradually emerges from the haze, it may be conducive to the development of China's export trade to some extent. Therefore, China's exports to developed economies in 2013 are expected to gradually pick up.
Fifth, the proportion of exports of self-owned brand products will continue to increase.
Expanding the export of self-owned brand products is an important aspect of upgrading and transforming the quality of China's foreign trade in the future. OEM products and processing trade products have low added value and meager trade benefits, but they account for half of China's export trade. As China's labor costs increase, it has gradually lost competitiveness and is not sustainable. The direction of China’s foreign trade development in the future is mainly to increase the export of self-owned brand products.
Judging from the statistical data on China’s import and export trade in recent months, exports of processing trade products have continued to decline, but general trade has maintained rapid growth, and the proportion of self-owned brand exports has gradually increased. From the perspective of the Canton Fair, the rise in the turnover of innovation and brand products is a major bright spot. According to the survey of the Minmetals Chemicals Chamber of Commerce, the buyers are more eager for the boutiques of the brand exhibition area, with a total turnover of 371 million US dollars, which is 21.6% higher than the same period of the previous year. At the same time, high value-added products are the main force of the transaction. Taking Gree as an example, although the Canton Fair as a whole was deserted, its turnover was nearly 300 million U.S. dollars, an increase of about 20% over the same period of the previous year. It was almost all of the most innovative products currently on display. This shows that China’s innovative products with its own brand have potential for development.
Sixth, the adjustment and upgrading of trade structure will be carried out gradually and in an orderly manner.
China’s export trade structure has reached a stage where it has to adjust and upgrade. The structural adjustments in 2013 and in the future will be mainly in the following areas: First, in general trade and processing trade, the competitiveness of processing trade products will gradually decline, the proportion of general trade will increase steadily, and the export of general trade products will be the focus and direction of development. . Second, in general trade products, exports of low-value-added labor-intensive products will gradually decrease, and exports of high-value-added capital and technology-intensive products will continue to increase. Third, in the geographical direction of foreign trade, exports to developed countries are still the main direction, but exports to emerging markets and developing countries will also gradually increase.